We’ve all enjoyed a hearty dose of doom over the last few years, haven’t we? It’s been so easy to see the possible calamities (both natural and manufactured by humanity’s poor decisions) and fall to the ground with hopelessness. Wildfires! Pandemics! Culture war strife! Actual war! Sinking fertility rates! Rising global temperatures! DOOOOOOOOOOOOOM.
Did you notice how tiring it is to be alarmed constantly? To be on the edge of panic every waking moment, scanning the internet for news on the newest thing to be terrified of? It is exhausting. Luckily, my innate contrarianism has offered me a path to salvation: techno-optimism!
Techno-optimism is the belief that humanity will find technological ways of rising to the challenges it faces. Before I go any further, I want to make it very clear that I do not invest technology with some sort of quasi-religious infallibility. Anything made by humans can be horrifying and disastrous, either by intent or by accident. But on balance, humanity stumbles forward with each tech step, not backwards. We might unleash some kind of hell that is impossible to recover from, sure, but odds are we can fix any mess we’ve made. Specifically: climate change and fertility rates.
Climate, she’s a changing. It’s getting warmer, and inconsistently varying from regular weather patterns. The bad news is that the effects we see now are the result of pollution from 10 years ago (give or take) so the next 10 years are already baked in. It does not matter if we dropped to zero emissions tomorrow, riding around on our wooden bicycles and eating only the limited food grown within walking distance of your house. But what does matter is how we adapt to the changes. Better waterway controls to reduce flooding. Aggressive building intensification in urban areas, with strict boundaries protecting woodland and farmland. And technology! Renewable energy production is skyrocketing, most notably in the places where its vital (China and the U.S.) Battery tech is improving dramatically, making full solar/wind more possible, and making a full shift to electric vehicles likely to happen at an accelerated pace. The final piece is carbon capture, and if that can get fully implemented, we’ll be a much better position.
As for dropping fertility rates (how’s that for a jarring change of topic?): Cloning and/or genetic engineering will give us the ability to choose our population growth rate. Will this open up a Pandora’s box of moral, ethical and legal issues? Oh boy will it. But the alternative solutions are worse. Do nothing and have a world full of old people with no one to care for them, or mandated babymaking which is never as fun as people assume it will be.
And what would a tech post be without mention of our newest techno-darling, AI? AI has a lot of potential, some good, some bad, and a whole lot of unknown effects. I think AI can be a very helpful tool, but I would not trust it for anything that needs to be more than 80% accurate. You still need a human to review the AI output for signs of it being completely and utterly wrong. As an example, I can see AI helping reduce the bloated costs involved in video game production. The big “AAA” games now take half a decade and hundreds of millions of dollars to get made. If AI can reduce the time and cost, that’s great. The danger is that game studios will use AI on the creative elements of game design and creation, which will be a net loss for us.
So what we need from our political leadership is facilitation. A buffet of cheap solar power is useless if there aren’t enough transmission lines to get the power to where its needed, when its needed. A city that refuses to build apartment buildings taller than 12 storeys because people don’t like tall things is a city that is dedicated to emission-intensive sprawl. Speed up the process to convert unused office space to rental apartments, change zoning rules to make it easier to build dense, multiuse neighbourhoods. Make sure our arterial roadways are focused on efficiently allowing the highest volume of people to travel across the city, by car or by mass transit, and designate secondary streets as lower speed networks.